Subject: Re: beheading video link
Date: Fri, 14 May 2004 22:16:19 -0700


Ali sez:


> It's just that roger and carp are using two different
> tools to get to the truth of a murky matter.
>
> Roger's tool is that the "simplest answer is the best
> answer". What it appears to be is what it is.
> His assumptions are that both CIA and Al-Qaida are
> stupid, CIA too stupid to think this up, and Al-Qaida
> for the immense stupidity of the timing of this video
> vis a vis their cause.
>

fair enough.  i would put it a bit differently, though.  in general,
you accept the simplest explanation until the data lead you elsewhere.
i'd just love to take credit for this rather obvious piece of advice,
but i must confess that it was one William of Occum in the 14th
century who done thunk it up.

it's obvious that we can't accept the u$ spin on this; it's clear
they're lying about not knowing where he was.  the only reason he got
out was because berg's parents sued the defense dept.  it still seems
logical to me that he was nabbed after he got out of jail.  i didn't
know about the laptop connection with moussoui.  that IS very weird.
if it was a conincidence, then it very well may have gotten him
killed.  who knows, maybe that's how he got interested in iraq to
start with.  it certainly was the probable reason that they hung onto
him for two weeks.  i still say that that was what sealed his fate.
all sorts of bad guys knew who he was and where he was.

but who knows who really killed him.  i actually don't buy into any
unified AQ command.  it's more like a franchise.  that's why the 'who
benefits' theory is not very convincing for me.  this plays pretty
well to some audiences that these guys care about; they get some
serious street cred for offing an amerikan jew.  and on the other
hand, i don't see this helping the bushies all that much.  sure, it
gives the talk radio crowd talking points, but it just continues the
process of grossing out the amerikan public.

if u$ spooks did plan and carry this off, it was a dumb idea.
minimum, short-term benefit and maximum possible downside if they
were/are caught.  dumber than watergate even

so, in summary, they're either too stupid to plan/execute such a
complex operation or they are just dumb enough to try this kind of
pointless, high-risk exercise.  take your pick.

roger