Subject: Re: dien bien phooy
Date: Fri, 7 May 2004 09:39:05 -0700


subcommander Ali, of the kanuk anarcho korps, makes some insightful
strategic observations:

> Dien bien phu was different. The viet minh had chinese
> and russian support, armaments etc. The Iraqi
> insurgents do not have any real long term support.
> Syria and Iran may slip a few weapons to them once in
> a while, but they are currently running on the old
> Iraqi army stockpiles.
> The french did not have "Air superiority" like the US
> has in Iraq. Then there is the terrain differences.
>
> Six months              160,000
> One Year                350,000
> 5 Years                       0
>


yeah, i'm using DBP in more of a symbolic way.

no, i guess the best military analogy to this mess is israel in the
west bank.  same problems, same tactical solution.  force protection,
high-intensity raids,  and as for civilians?  what civilians?  afraid
we've seen it all before many times since '67.

that's why i don't think this admin, or kerry's, will stick it out
much longer.  it's a bloody and morally corrosive process.  and worse
for amerikans, it's really, really hard and takes commitment and much
effort, occasionally on weekends.  that doesn't sound like us to me.

we'll declare victory and go home, like always.  i've no idea what
mess we'll leave.  i think civil war is the most likely outcome.  bad
juju.

roger